Should McCain get elected he will be older than the average life expectancy for American white males during his first term.
Note: This is not the average life expectancy for Americans who were tortured for five years in Vietnam. Based on what McCain suffered through, I would guess that expectancy would be lower.
The Protocol loves demographic reductionism.
Showing posts with label McCain. Show all posts
Showing posts with label McCain. Show all posts
Monday, August 18, 2008
John McCain: 50/50 Chance of Surviving First Term
Friday, August 15, 2008
War in Georgia!? Atlanta burns again?
Oh. Not THAT Georgia.
Do we have troops there? No...
Oh, okay,
Well, didja hear that NASA produced those new swimsuits that Phelps is wearing?
In a surprising turn of events Americans don't give a shit about conflict abroad.
This is why Obama chose to take his vacation now. He figured accurately that the Olympics would provide him media cover, even in the face of an act of war by our Cold War nemesis.
Even the internets with their ten-thousand tiny microscopes have moved on from the Caucasus to dissect the upcoming Purpose-Driven Debate with Rick Warren. Follow that up with an Obama veep announcement and the denouement of the Games of the XXIX Olympiad and Georgia won't be on our minds. Was this the October surprise the McCain camp had been waiting for? I hope not. There's a reason it's called the October surprise...
because it happens in October...
right before the election...
when everyone and their grandmother is focused on the campaigns.
If Randy Scheunemann had been slowly stroking his Georgia woody since he left his role as Saakashvili's man in Washington in May, I hope he didn't get overly excited when McCain was the only guy left in the room this week.
The foreplay is far from over and the clean-up could be awkward.
The Protocol is never premature in its analytical ejaculations.
21 Edicts for Election Coverage
All journalists in Beijing have been issued the 21 edicts from the Chinese Governments propaganda unit.
While the American media enjoys freedom of the press and prides itself on ability to speak truth to power, they figured the Chinese were onto something here and issued their own 21 edicts.
What follows is an item-by-item comparison of the 21 Chinese edicts with The 21 edicts for mainstream media election coverage.1. The telecast of sports events will be live [but] in case of emergencies, no print is allowed to report on it.
1. The telecast of gaffes will be live [but] if McCain has a "senior moment", no print is allowed to report on it.2. From August 1, most of the previously accessible overseas websites will be unblocked. No coverage is allowed on this development. There's also no need to use stories published overseas on this matter and [website] operators should not provide any superlinks on their pages.
2. From mid-July, most of the previously unacceptable character attacks will be unblocked only for the candidate trailing in the polls. No coverage is allowed on this development. 3. Be careful with religious and ethnic subjects.
3. Be careful with religious and ethnic subjects.4. Don't make fuss about foreign leaders at the opening ceremony, especially in relation to seat arrangements or their private lives.
4. Don't make fuss about candidates when they travel abroad, especially in relation to crowd arrangements or their ability to inspire.5. We have to put special emphasis on ethnic equality. Any perceived racist terms as "black athlete" or "white athlete" is not allowed. During the official telecast, we can refer to Taiwan as "Chinese Taipei". In ordinary times, refer to Taiwanese athletes as "those from the precious island Taiwan....." In case of any pro Taiwan-independence related incident inside the venue, you shall follow restrictions listed in item 1.
5. We have to put special emphasis on ethnic equality. Any perceived racist terms as "black politician" or "white politician" is not allowed. During the official telecasts, we can refer to Sen. Obama as "Sen. Barack Obama". In ordinary times, refer to Sen. Obama as "that black man from the precious island Hawaii....." In case of any pro race-baiting related incident inside any venue, you shall dissect it for a minimum of 3 news cycles.6. For those ethnic Chinese coaches and athletes who come back to Beijing to compete on behalf of other countries, don't play up their "patriotism" since that could backfire with their adopted countries.
6. For those ethnic Scotch-Irish Americans who surface from their hollows to speak on behalf of Appalachia, don't play up their "patriotism" since that could backfire with Americans who believe, "all men are created equal," and other quaint notions expressed in our founding documents.7. As for the Pro-Tibetan independence and East Turkistan movements, no coverage is allowed. There's also no need to make fuss about our anti-terrorism efforts.
7. As for Darfur and Afghanistan, no coverage is allowed. Please make a fuss about our anti-terrorism efforts.8. All food saftey issues, such as cancer-causing mineral water, is off-limits.
8. All food safety issues, such as the deadly strain of e coli that develops only in corn and grain-fed cattle and spreads in the confined quarters of our factory farms, are off-limits.9. In regard to the three protest parks, no interviews and coverage is allowed.
9. In regard to PUMAs protesting in Denver, interviews and coverage is encouraged.10. No fuss about the rehearsals on August 2,5. No negative comments about the opening ceremony.
10. No fuss about the conventions on August 25-28, and September 1-4. No negative comments about the speaker slots.11.No mention of the Lai Changxing case.
11.Please mention the Rielle Hunter case.12.No mention of those who illegally enter China.
12.No mention of our economy's dependence on the labor of those who illegally enter America.13.On international matters, follow the official line. For instance, follow the official propaganda line on the North Korean nuclear issue; be objective when it comes to the Middle East issue and play it down as much as possible; no fuss about the Darfur question; No fuss about UN reform; be careful with Cuba. If any emergency occurs, please report to the foreign ministry.
13.On international matters, follow the official line. For instance, follow the official propaganda line on the North Korean nuclear issue; be objective when it comes to the Middle East issue and play it down as much as possible; no fuss about the Darfur question; No fuss about UN reform; be careful with Gitmo. If any emergency occurs, please follow the Bush Administration's lead.14. If anything related to territorial dispute happens, make no fuss about it. Play down the Myanmar issue; play down the Takeshima island dispute.
14. If anything related to territorial dispute happens, make no fuss about it. Play down the Georgia issue; play down failed African nations.15. Regarding diplomatic ties between China and certain nations, don't do interviews on your own and don't use online stories. Instead, adopt Xinhua stories only. Particularly on the Doha round negotiation, US elections, China-Iran co-operation, China-Aussie co-operation, China-Zimbabwe co-operation, China-Paraguay co-operation.
15. Regarding diplomatic ties between USA and certain nations, don't do interviews on your own and don't use online stories. Instead, adopt AP stories only. Particularly on the Kyoto Protocol, Reasons for going to war in Iraq, USA-Saudi Arabia co-operation, USA-Georgia co-operation, USA-Pakistan co-operation, and our role in the UN.16.Be very careful with TV ratings, only use domestic body's figures. Play it down when rating goes down.
16.Be very careful with any poll that shows one candidate with a decent lead, only use national polls that are close to tied. The race is always tied or too close to call. Remember to report that honestly.17. In case of an emergency involving foreign tourists, please follow the official line. If there's no official line, stay away from it.
17. In case of an emergency involving Americans struggling against an act of nature, please follow the official line. If there's no official line, stay away from it.18. Re possible subway accidents in the capital, please follow the official line.
18. Re possible accidents in the capital, please follow the official line, i.e. accuse Arab terrorists first. Note: If government official becomes primary suspect in an act of terrorism, stay away from it.19.Be positive on security measures.
19.Be positive on security measures. Always remind Americans to be afraid.20. Be very careful with stock market coverage during the Games.
20. Be very careful with economics coverage during the election. Americans don't understand basic economics. Try to keep it that way.21.Properly handle coverage of the Chinese sports delegation:
A.don't criticise the selection process
B.don't overhype gold medals; don't issue predictions on gold medal numbers; don't make fuss about cash rewards for athletes.
C.don't make a fuss about isolated misconducts by athletes.
D.enforce the publicity of our anti-doping measures.
E. put emphasis on government efforts to secure the retirement life of atheletes.
F. keep a cool head on the Chinese performance. Be prepared for possible fluctations in the medal race.
G. refrain from publishing opinion pieces at odds with the official propangada line of the Chinese delegation.
21.Properly handle coverage of the rest of the media:
A.don't criticize speculation in reporting.
B.don't overhype the candidates engaging the issues; don't issue predictions about our country being in a crisis; don't make fuss about cash rewards from lobbyists.
C.Please make a fuss about even the faintest whiff of connection to or actual impropriety by key members of campaign staffs.
D.enforce the publicity of our anti-terrorism policies. Again, terror is everywhere.
E. put emphasis on government efforts to secure the retirement life of Americans. Hide the fact that the previous Administration failed miserably at this goal.
F. keep a cool head on polling performance. Be prepared for possible fluctations in the horse race and report on even the tiniest movement.
G. refrain from fact-checking.
Wednesday, August 6, 2008
Memo to Obama Campaign & Surrogates
How not to respond to McCain attack memes:
- Claim, as does Bob Herbert, that McCain's "Celebrity" ad deliberately juxtaposed Britney Spears with 'phallic' imagery like the Leaning Tower of Pisa and the Washington Monument to inflame subconscious fears of interracial sex.
- Suggest, as does Timothy Noah in Slate, that the WSJ's article on Obama's skinniness is really about his race.
- Opine, as does The One himself, that the political party that represents about 50% of the nation "takes pride in being ignorant."
- Point out that McCain himself now concedes that inflating your tires is a good idea.
- Circulate widely the news that Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, potential dark-horse McCain VP pick, supports Obama's energy plan. (Question: is she now off the shortlist because she endorsed Obama's plan, or is it the other way around? Discuss.)
- Somehow get the most loathed celebrity in America, and the daughter of a major McCain supporter, to release the best political ad of the season so far:
- . . . and don't let the McCain camp somehow claim that Ms. Hilton's energy plan is the GOP plan, when in fact it's nearly identical to your own.
Saturday, August 2, 2008
Campaign Appearances: July Update
We first ran this piece last month and here is the line graph with the July totals included. At first glance the July numbers seem to fit with the earlier numbers - both candidates scaled back the number of domestic appearances this month. A closer inspection reveals that Sen. Obama is dominating Sen. McCain on the summer trail. Obama's excuse for the decline in his July appearance numbers was he was part of a hugely successful week-long CODEL trip to Europe and the Middle East. McCain's excuse was . . . well . . . hey, he's 71, it's summertime, you know what that means . . . GOLF CARTS MUTHAFUCKA!
Despite Obama playing Paris Hilton to hundreds of thousands of German "fans" he still managed to outcampaign McCain back in the states by a 29-18 campaign event margin in July. Must have been all of those Met-RX energy bars, or the Black Forest Berry Honest Tea, or maybe it's his freakishly skinny physique. McCain better be careful in August, he might get lapped by the hardest working man in show business.
The Protocol always travels fast, hard, and low to the ground.
Florida Front Pages
Yesterday was a big day for the Sunshine State. Both candidates were campaigning in Florida with Sen. Obama visiting the Bay Area and Sen. McCain in Orlando. Sen. Obama was heckled at his town hall meeting in St. Petersberg by members of the International People's Democratic Uhuru Movement, a pan-African Socialist group. (The Obama campaign responded by thanking the group and blasting undecided voters inboxes with a memo titled, "Jesse's not the only one: More lefty black folks that hate me.") Meanwhile, McCain yukked it up with National Urban League in an attempt to cut into Obama's base.
The visits also happened to coincide with a report that Florida is in a recession for the first time in 16 years.
Ambinder speculated about whether today's Florida headlines would focus on economics or race and that a move in one direction would indicate whether the "race card" attack was taking hold.
The Protocol looked at today's front pages of the top five Florida newspapers (by circulation) and is ready to deliver a verdict . . .
St. Petersburg Times circ. 422,410
The Times leads with "Obama open to drilling" with a large picture of him smiling among supporters. The picture of Obama dominates a smaller picture of McCain joking with National Urban League President Marc Morial. With economics front and center particularly Obama's move toward drilling, an issue that the McCain campaign wanted to wedge between the two candidates, this front page is favorable to the Democrat. Papers commonly give favorable coverage to any visiting candidate and that phenomenon is borne out by the contrasting front pages of the St. Pete Times and the Orlando Sentinel. Obama's visit focused on the Bay Area and McCain's centered on Orlando. ADVANTAGE OBAMA
Miami Herald circ. 390,171
The Herald provides equal visual coverage under the headline "Florida Showdown." In the article, however, the body starts with racial issues, hecklers included, and this after a lede that set up the economy before the racial issues ("...offering contrasting fixes for the economy while confronting racial issues"). That subtle mismatch smacks of an editor flipping the body paragraphs before going to press. Burying the economic news after the jump: ADVANTAGE MCCAIN
Orlando Sentinel circ. 341,025
The Sentinel headlines with "MCCAIN: OBAMA NOT BEST PICK FOR BLACKS," and a picture of Sen. McCain and National Urban League President Marc Morial having a good ole time onstage. If a picture is worth 1000 words, then this one is repeating "Playing the race card? Me? John McCain? How could I?" about a hundred times. Again, the soft coverage of McCain could be due to the fact that he was the candidate with a higher profile local visit. ADVANTAGE MCCAIN
South Florida Sun-Sentinel circ. 339,728
The Sun-Sentinel had nothing on the front page about the candidates save for a small photo of McCain at the bottom in the Daily Digest referring to reader mail about his rejected NYT editorial. Above the fold they ran a story on the aforementioned recession. They were the only paper on this list with that story on the front page and the only paper with no front-page story on the candidates. ADVANTAGE OBAMA
Tampa Tribune and Times circ. 309,916
The Tampa Tribune focuses on the battle and gives equal coverage to both candidates. There is no mention of race and the text highlights the main theme of each candidate's visit: Obama's economic stimulus plan and McCain's school vouchers strategy. While the issues and the economy trump race on this page the coverage seems even-handed. NO ADVANTAGE
Sooooo, that's two for Obama and two for McCain with one tie. Looks like both campaigns are getting their message out in equal measure. Keep an eye on those Sunday papers to see if there is any movement toward race or economics.
The Protocol always buries the lede below the fold.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Culture Wars Part III: The Turd Blossoms Again
Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, and Andrea Mitchell go toe to toe in this remarkable interview.
As Ambinder notes the action starts two and a half minutes in and continues right up till the end.
I wonder if this is the beginning of the end of the media's love affair with Sen. McCain. They've always appreciated his candor and his open-bus policy but this recent string of ads has shown that he, and Davis, are running Karl Rove's third presidential campaign.
The choice to align himself with Bush four years ago was McCain's critical mistake. Had he maintained his maverick persona, channeled the animosity he must have felt toward Bush/Rove and Co. after the South Carolina primary in 2000, he could have remained ever the straight talker, and run as a genuine alternative to the Bush White House. Instead he continues to follow the spirit of the hug by hiring a Rove lackey to run his day-to-day (Steve Schmidt) and allowing his campaign to continue to wage Rove's culture war.
The media has begun to realize that their proud maverick has become a puppet. John McCain might not lead the country like George W. Bush, but he is certainly campaigning like him. That would be a great plan, I mean, GW has won two in a row and if it ain't broke, . . . there must be nothing to fix, right?.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Obama v. McCain: Campaign Appearances by Month
McCain is averaging 34.2 campaign appearances per month since April 2007, while Obama is averaging 45.7 over that same time frame. This difference isn't THAT surprising considering Obama's extended primary vs. Sen. Clinton. Sen. Obama's primary season was four months longer than Sen. McCain's (Feb.-May), and Obama significantly outpaced McCain in appearances during those four months.
McCain's three lowest totals came in July and August of 2007, and March of 2008. The latter month was when he took his trip to Iraq so that can partially explain the lower number. In July of 07 the McCain campaign underwent its first major reshuffling, so those months could've been spent restrategizing. That and it was widely known that his campaign was low on funds, so he could've been husbanding resources during the August vacation period.
Obama's lowest months were April and May 2007, and, interestingly, March 2008. Two of these "low" months included more appearances than McCain's average month, so keep that in perspective. The early slower pace to his campaign schedule could have been attributed to a new campaign finding its bearings (and working with a smaller war chest). The March 08 number is notable since it came during the heart of his intense primary campaign. Perhaps he was taking a break, relatively speaking, after the 30 contests in February, or that less frequent primaries and caucuses meant fewer requirements for appearances.
McCain has the highest single month total, with 63 appearances in January 08, a statistic that supports the "John McCain: 71 years YOUNG" argument. This was the month he essentially clinched the nomination, so his 24 appearances in Florida and 16 each in Michigan and South Carolina make sense. He hasn't made half as many appearances in any month since this high month. He was campaigning much harder in May and June of '07 than he did in those same months in '08. A lot of that '07 work was probably fundraisers and other events to guarantee his fledgling candidacy's survival, but the relative inactivity of his campaign since January, especially recently, could haunt him as the general heats up.
There was less of a need to make appearances after had sewn up the nomination, but that argument makes sense for every month up until June. Both candidates total appearances came down in June but, while for Obama that makes sense, he finally could take a break from the trail after securing the nomination, McCain needed no such break. He had been relaxing and stretching his legs since January. Why didn't his campaign hit its stride in June and taken advantage of the Dems drawn-out fight?
Well, considering that McCain's campaign has undergone another July shake-up (in what is becoming an annual rite of passage), we now know that incompetence is partly to blame. Months that could've been used to define their candidate while the two Dems bloodied each other late into the spring were squandered. I'll be interested to see the trend of those campaign appearance totals as the general heats up in the fall. Will McCain start campaigning on weekends? Is his lower number of appearances somehow related to his age? The high total in January seems to indicate otherwise but perhaps he reacted poorly to those 60+ appearances? He certainly looked terrible on the trail in January, but a lot of that was his poor public speaking skills, which I've read have been coached out of him. While these questions about his age are speculative, McCain can put to bed some of these whispers with a robust slate of appearances in September.
That type of schedule would lend more credence to the argument that his absence on the trail in the spring was a strategic error, and not one of necessity given the Senator's age. Either way, with the depressed value of the Republican brand the McCain campaign has less margin for error than the typical Republican Presidential candidate. With his slow start on the trail in June, that margin may have already been breached.
The Protocol has evidence that Sen. McCain was replaced by a robot on the campaign trail in January.
Obama v. McCain: Top 10 Campaign Stops
The NYT has a great interactive graphic that shows where the candidates have made appearances since April 2007. The Times defines appearances as speeches, fundraisers, meet and greets, debates, press avails, private events, and assorted other events. The two charts below show the ten cities each candidate has visited most frequently since they started campaigning last spring.
(The Protocol will be delivering more analysis of this data in the coming days...stay tuned.)
| OBAMA's TOP 10 | ||
| Rank | City | No. of Events |
| 1 | Des Moines, IA | 33 |
| 2 | Washington, DC | 31 |
| 3 | Chicago, IL | 27 |
| 4 | Las Vegas, NV | 17 |
| 5 | Los Angeles, CA | 13 |
| 6 | Manchester, NH | 12 |
| t7 | Colombia, SC | 10 |
| t7 | New York City, NY | 10 |
| 9 | Philadelphia, PA | 9 |
| 10 | Portland, OR | 7 |
| McCAIN's TOP 10 | ||
| Rank | City | No. of Events |
| 1 | Washington, DC | 19 |
| t2 | Manchester, NH | 12 |
| t2 | New York City, NY | 12 |
| t4 | Columbia, SC | 11 |
| t4 | Miami, FL | 11 |
| 6 | Phoenix, AZ | 10 |
| t7 | Concord, NH | 9 |
| t7 | Des Moines, IA | 9 |
| 9 | Charleston, SC | 8 |
| t10 | Chicago, IL | 7 |
| t10 | Nashua, NH | 7 |
| t10 | Orlando, FL | 7 |
Thursday, June 26, 2008
This Week in Polling
Last week was a tough polling week for Sen. McCain. Rasmussen reported yesterday that from 6/13 to 6/20 on the spectrum of "Safe GOP" to "Safe Dem" they moved 8 states closer to the "Safe Dem" side. (Scroll down past Balance of Power chart for the History of Changes chart.) The only state that moved toward "Safe GOP" was Colorado on 6/20 moving from "Leans Dem" to "Toss Up" and that was merely a retraction of the 6/19 move from "Toss Up" to "Leans Dem."
It's only June (I mean, the Cubs still have the best record in baseball, so we know we have a ways to go till the fall), but look for Team McCain to adopt some changes in strategy.
There is no doubt about the Balance of Power within the Protocol.
Wednesday, June 25, 2008
Barack Obama: So Deep Summer Tour '08
According to Ben Smith, Obama will be focusing his resources on campaigning in 18 states; 14 won by Bush in 2004 (AK, CO, FL, GA, IN, IA, MO, MT, NV, NM, NC, ND, OH, and VA) and 4 won by Kerry (MI, NH, PA, and WI). Consider this a memo to McCain from the Obama campaign stating, "Our fundraising jimmy runs deep, so deep, we put the Upper West to sleep." See map below.
In the following map, the more nuanced color gradient from blue to purple to red, reflects the 2004 margins of victory in each of these 18 states. The redder states indicate a larger margin of victory for Bush in 2004. The bluer states . . . well . . . don't look too hard, there aren't any among these 18 states, would've reflected large Kerry victories, while the purple color reflects state contests that were close in 2004.
What these maps show is that Obama's sizable war chest is allowing him to reach into traditionally Republican states and, at the very, very least, force McCain to play defense.
Sure, the usual suspects are on the list (Florida, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania), and changing demographics are pulling new states into play (Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia), but Montana, Indiana, Alaska, and North Dakota, states that Bush won by 20, 21, 25, and 27% respectively, really? . . . that's just an excuse to show off.Obama (slowly tapping steepled fingers under chin): "David, have the Intermint print me another 10 million Obamabucks, I want to play in Ketchikan."
Plouffe (face buried in Blackberry, trying to sell Florida Election Commission on idea to switch to a caucus for the General, mouths to Obama) "Consider the memo sent."
Hope you like fly fishing, and Buffalo Burgers, Sen. McCain, because Obama and his Scrooge McDuck-like money bags of "Fuck you" cash are dropping into a fly-over zone near you.
The Protocol would like you to know that today was a good day.
Thursday, May 29, 2008
A Love Supreme
It’s more than just Coltrane’s sickest album. It’s also what I feel for the highest court in the land.
And in light of that love, it’s never too early to start handicapping the candidates’ possible SCOTUS picks!
Supreme Court appointments worm their way into political discourse in strange ways. Generally speaking, voters don’t give a shit: no politician scores huge points by talking about the least accountable branch of government. But to movement soldiers on the Right and the Left, control over the Court is the great prize. In this bizarro campaign season, when both parties are facing the possibility of revolt, partisans of the candidates are using the Court to rally the troops. Unite around Obama or turn the Court over to Scalia and Thomas! Vote for McCain or permanently lose the chance to overturn Roe!
The current age of composition of the Court makes this election particularly crucial. The liberals are older, the conservatives younger: in January 2009, Stevens will be 88, Ginsburg 75, Breyer 70, and Souter 69. Kennedy and Scalia will both be 72, Thomas 60, Alito 58, and Roberts a frisky 53. The next president will likely be able to replace Stevens, Ginsburg, and Souter (who hates being on the Court)—Breyer, Scalia, and Kennedy love being justices, and Thomas will hold on grimly until his seat is plucked from his cold, dead hands. Three seats for the November victor is a legacy worth fighting for: FDR’s picks were radically changing American jurisprudence and society for thirty years after his death, and Reagan’s might end up doing the same.
Yesterday’s NYT spotlights the differences between McCain’s and Obama’s philosophies on SCOTUS appointees. Briefly: McCain has sold his soul to the right and pledges more of Roberts and Alito; Obama wants empathy.
Of course, these handy soundbites greatly simplify things. Let’s not forget that McCain, the champion of campaign finance reform, filed an amicus brief in FEC v. Wisconsin Right to Life to no avail, as the two justices he claims to want to emulate effectively gutted the Court’s previous upholding of McCain-Feingold. And Obama taught law for ten years at the University of Chicago, hardly a hotbed of empathy-based jurisprudence. Campaign rhetoric is campaign rhetoric: I expect that both candidates would hew closer to the ideological center in their SCOTUS picks.
With that in mind, and without further ado, The October Protocol shortlists.
OBAMA
Sonia Sotomayor: Second Circuit (Clinton); 54 years old; appointed to the Southern District of New York by GHW Bush; would be the first Hispanic justice since Cardozo; reliably liberal; widely considered a front-runner if the Democrat wins.
Diane Wood: Seventh Circuit (Clinton); 58 years old; certified MILF; mentioned as possible pick for Kerry; more moderate than other liberal judges; academic star and respected judge; from Obama’s home circuit.
Merrick Garland: D.C. Circuit (Clinton); 56 years old; oversaw the Oklahoma City and Unabomber investigations for the Clinton DOJ; considered relatively moderate.
Deval Patrick/Jennifer Granholm: Governors of Mass. (52) and Mich. (49), respectively. Obama has floated the idea of nominating a politician in the mold of Earl Warren, former (Republican!) governor of California. Patrick was head of the Civil Rights Division in the Clinton DOJ; Granholm was the Michigan attorney general. Both have the legal chops and the real-world experience to add a shot of pragmatism to a Court made up entirely of former circuit court judges; both are also partisan Democrats, and might only add to the politicization of the Court.
Harold Koh: Dean of Yale Law School; 54 years old; clerked for Blackmun; Ass’t Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor under Clinton; respected author and essayist on human rights and international law; criticized as a partisan Democrat; intellectual heavyweight; would be first Asian-American on the Court.
Other options: Kim Wardlaw (9th Cir.); Leah Ward Sears (Georgia Supreme Court); Cass Sunstein (University of Chicago); Barrington D. Parker (2nd Cir.).
MCCAIN
Michael McConnell: Tenth Circuit (GW Bush); 53 years old; prominent Constitutional scholar; widely cited as a likely pick to replace Rehnquist; proponent of originalism; supports a Constitutional amendment banning abortion—but then again, thinks it’s the only way to do so.
Alex Kozinski: Chief Judge, Ninth Circuit (Reagan); 58 years old; distinguished essayist and legal scholar; idiosyncratic judge with a strong libertarian bent; not an ‘originalist’ like Scalia or ‘batshit crazy’ like Thomas; author of the greatest judicial line ever: “The parties are advised to chill.”
Maureen Mahoney: Appellate lawyer, Latham & Wilkins; 54 years old; deputy Solicitor General under GHW Bush; distinguished advocate; argued for the University of Michigan in favor of its affirmative action program in Grutter v. Bollinger; highly competent attorney in the mode of John Roberts.
J. Michael Luttig: General counsel for Boeing; 54 years old; star of the conservative legal movement who resigned from the Fourth Circuit for a higher-paying job (who does that?); often compared to Scalia in philosophy and temperament; clashed with Bush administration over executive prerogatives in the Jose Padilla case.
Edward Prado: Fifth Circuit (GW Bush); 61 years old; former federal public defender; touted as a moderate option to replace O’Connor; subject of a “Draft Prado” movement for a Latino Supreme Court justice not named Alberto Gonzalez.
Other options: Janice Rogers Brown (D.C. Cir.); Priscilla Owen (5th Cir.); Emilio Garza (5th Cir.); Eugene Volokh (UCLA and The Volokh Conspiracy).
And the doozy:
Richard Posner: Seventh Circuit; 69 years old; widely considered the most brilliant judge in America; immensely prolific scholar and philosopher; self-declared Pragmatist in the mode of Oliver Wendell Holmes; noted proponent of the Law & Economics school; supports both the president’s power to order torture and the legalization of soft drugs; unquestioned intellect and lack of partisan identification make him a lock never to sit on the Supreme Court.
Richard Posner is on the shortlist for Deputy Commander of East Appalachia under The October Protocol.
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