Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, and Andrea Mitchell go toe to toe in this remarkable interview.
As Ambinder notes the action starts two and a half minutes in and continues right up till the end.
I wonder if this is the beginning of the end of the media's love affair with Sen. McCain. They've always appreciated his candor and his open-bus policy but this recent string of ads has shown that he, and Davis, are running Karl Rove's third presidential campaign.
The choice to align himself with Bush four years ago was McCain's critical mistake. Had he maintained his maverick persona, channeled the animosity he must have felt toward Bush/Rove and Co. after the South Carolina primary in 2000, he could have remained ever the straight talker, and run as a genuine alternative to the Bush White House. Instead he continues to follow the spirit of the hug by hiring a Rove lackey to run his day-to-day (Steve Schmidt) and allowing his campaign to continue to wage Rove's culture war.
The media has begun to realize that their proud maverick has become a puppet. John McCain might not lead the country like George W. Bush, but he is certainly campaigning like him. That would be a great plan, I mean, GW has won two in a row and if it ain't broke, . . . there must be nothing to fix, right?.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Culture Wars Part III: The Turd Blossoms Again
Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Rasmussen in OH
The McCain campaign has to be encouraged by this latest poll in what is developing into a must-win state for him.
Rasmussen in NV
The Breach is back after a two-week vacation. The previously posted state graphs have been updated with the latest data points.
Buckethead, Bumblefoot, and Brain
Not the title of a Roald Dahl book. Sadly.
An article in last week's NYT led me to contemplate, as I often do, the legacy of Guns n' Roses. Apparently, Axl and whoever else is serving time in what surely is the dreariest gig in rock are releasing a new song--obscurely titled "Shackler's Revenge"--in September, as a track on the Rock Band 2 video game. The announced deal between Microsoft, MTV, and Universal points to the new tactics music labels are using to counter the staggering fall in record sales since music downloading and copying software became widely used. I had always thought that the fun in playing Guitar Hero and games like it was rocking along to songs you already know; now, apparently, it's in paying for and consuming new songs by utterly irrelevant bands. What's next, Chris Brown's Doublemint Gum jingle on Guitar Hero 4?
But . . . Guns n' Roses. Sorry, "Guns n' Roses," which now means Axl Rose and random dudes from Nine Inch Nails, The Replacements, and Axl's hometown. Not to mention Buckethead, Bumblefoot, and Brain--as if dudes with cool nicknames could replace Slash and Izzy. Still working on that fucking record, ten years later.
Guns n' Roses was once the greatest rock n' roll band in the world. Raw, edgy, and punk as fuck in that glam way, back when those two things were really kind of the same thing, they channelled the Stones and Aerosmith but made them dirtier, meaner, smellier. Appetite For Destruction is a nearly flawless punk album--even though Slash and Izzy rip blues riffs that Greg Ginn could never have learned, Axl's snarl was scarier and his tales of the urban underbelly are more gripping than anything Henry Rollins ever barked incoherently into a microphone. Even the power ballad is dark: Slash's bitter solo over the long minor-key coda to "Sweet Child O' Mine" turns the world's shittiest love poem into some kind of nightmare.
Of course, Guns n' Roses then became the worst band in the world--or rather, the exemplar of everything that sucks about rock n' roll. By the time Axl was turning into Brian Wilson by way of Howard Hughes, they'd already released an unforgivably sloppy acoustic half-album (featuring the unforgivably stupid "One In A Million") and perhaps the ultimate paradigm of the over-indulgent, massively pretentious double album: the Use Your Illusions, which sure rocked back in 1991 but sure seem pretty unlistenable now. "Get In The Ring?" Really? Two versions of "Don't Cry"? Those terrible Dylan and McCartney covers? November Fucking Rain? The grungy assholes who ruled the Sunset Strip and out-Motleyed the Crue would have thrown a Jack Daniels bottle at the TV screen and trashed all their gear if they could have seen the embarassments they'd become.
What's sad about it is that by the time Axl famously threatened Kurt Cobain at the 1992 MTV Music Video Awards, he had completed the transformation Cobain himself refused to ever make. A punk kid, hating his shitty Indiana town, getting beaten up by the jocks and robbed by the black dudes, moving to L.A. for his shot at some kind of redemptive rock and roll glory--and then he's Peter Frampton, he's Rod Stewart in the 70s, he's Phil Spector, he's writing suck-my-cock songs and changing his costume every other tune, blowing all his money on pig roasts and music videos and cocaine and firing Slash. Oh, and getting Sebastian Bach to be his spokesman--just like Bob Dylan and Johnny Cash!
FUN TEST: How long you can watch this clip of Axl N' Chumps playing "Welcome to the Jungle" in 2002?
I lasted twenty seconds or so before turning it off in disgust, which puts it right up there on the Unwatchability Index with George W. Bush and 2 Girls 1 Cup.
The October Protocol does not recommend that you spend any time looking for the actual 2Girls1Cup video.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Swingtown, USA: Clearwater, FL
Welcome:
Clearwater is the county seat of Pinellas County, located on the Pinellas Peninsula between Tampa Bay and the Gulf of Mexico. The town is named after a fresh water spring flowing from near where City Hall is located today. Pinellas is named for the Spanish Punta Pinal, or "Point of Pines."
The city is the smallest of the three principal cities in the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater metropolitan area. The Tampa metro area with a population of 2.7 million people is the second largest in Florida and the third largest in the Southeastern US.
By the Numbers:
According to the US Census, the 2006 population estimate for Clearwater was 107,742, down from 108,787 in 2000. The 2006 estimated population for Pinellas County was 924,413, up from 921,482 in 2000. Clearwater is 84% white, and 10% African-American. Persons of Hispanic or Latino descent make up 9% of the population. In 2006, the per capita income for the city was $25,126.
Bush won Pinellas County by 246 votes in 2004: 225,686 to Kerry's 225,460. In Pinellas County's Republican Primary, McCain won 37.5% of the vote, Romney won 30%, Giuliani won 16.5%, Huckabee won 10.5%, and Paul won 4%. In the invalid Democratic Primary Clinton won 52% to Obama's 33%, with Edwards tallying 12%.
Presently in Pinellas County there are 235,960 registered Democrats, 233,708 registered Republicans, and 149,274 voters registered as Other. In 2004, there were 223,544 registered Democrats, 231,652 registered Republicans, and 135,793 registered Other.
Fun Facts!
The area was originally settled in 1835 when Fort Harrison was built overlooking Clearwater Harbor to serve as an outpost for the US Army during the Seminole Wars.
During WWII, Clearwater became a major training base for troops headed to Europe and the Pacific. Most of the hotels in the area served as barracks for the troops and nighttime blackouts were common to confuse potential enemy bombers.
Clearwater Beach is consistently ranked among the top beaches in the nation.
The Belleview Biltmore Resort and Spa, built in 1897, is the oldest occupied wooden building still used for its original purpose. And it has ghosts.
The worldwide "spiritual headquarters" of the Church of Scientology is in Clearwater. This international HQ, founded in the late 70s, is known as Flag Land Base in the official parlance of the pseudo-religion.
Evel Knievel lived in Clearwater when he died and Hulk Hogan maintains an estate in nearby Belleair a beach house in Clearwater Beach.
Your local news source: Clearwater Citizen, Clearwater Gazette
The following chart shows the five smallest vote margins among Pinellas County precincts in the 2004 General Election.
Precincts
Vote Margin (in # of votes)
St. Petersburg 252
Bush +1
Clearwater 503
Kerry +2
Clearwater 603
Bush +2
Pinellas Park 191
Kerry +3
Clearwater 636
Kerry +3
Swingtown, USA is a regular feature on the Protocol where we introduce readers to a city or town from a swing county in a swing state.
Iowa Polling: SUSA and Rasmussen 2008
SUSA polled registered voters until the June poll, when it polled likely voters. Polls surveyed between 528 and 600 respondents.
All Rasmussen polls surveyed 500 likely voters.
Among the Bush states, Iowa is the most likely to be flipped by Obama. Obama has treated Iowa as his second home in his campaign thus far. It was the key to his primary victory over Sen. Clinton. His consistent lead there reflects the fact that 177 of his 686 campaign appearances (26%) have been in the Hawkeye State. The next closest state in total campaign appearances is New Hampshire with 52.
Monday, July 14, 2008
C'mon Dow, it's all in your head.
Last week the Dow traded at 52-week lows on its highest volume in two years. It's too bad that stock indices aren't immune to "mental recessions."
Altogether now American investors, "We think we can, we think we can, we think we can, . . . "
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Obama v. McCain: Campaign Appearances by Month
McCain is averaging 34.2 campaign appearances per month since April 2007, while Obama is averaging 45.7 over that same time frame. This difference isn't THAT surprising considering Obama's extended primary vs. Sen. Clinton. Sen. Obama's primary season was four months longer than Sen. McCain's (Feb.-May), and Obama significantly outpaced McCain in appearances during those four months.
McCain's three lowest totals came in July and August of 2007, and March of 2008. The latter month was when he took his trip to Iraq so that can partially explain the lower number. In July of 07 the McCain campaign underwent its first major reshuffling, so those months could've been spent restrategizing. That and it was widely known that his campaign was low on funds, so he could've been husbanding resources during the August vacation period.
Obama's lowest months were April and May 2007, and, interestingly, March 2008. Two of these "low" months included more appearances than McCain's average month, so keep that in perspective. The early slower pace to his campaign schedule could have been attributed to a new campaign finding its bearings (and working with a smaller war chest). The March 08 number is notable since it came during the heart of his intense primary campaign. Perhaps he was taking a break, relatively speaking, after the 30 contests in February, or that less frequent primaries and caucuses meant fewer requirements for appearances.
McCain has the highest single month total, with 63 appearances in January 08, a statistic that supports the "John McCain: 71 years YOUNG" argument. This was the month he essentially clinched the nomination, so his 24 appearances in Florida and 16 each in Michigan and South Carolina make sense. He hasn't made half as many appearances in any month since this high month. He was campaigning much harder in May and June of '07 than he did in those same months in '08. A lot of that '07 work was probably fundraisers and other events to guarantee his fledgling candidacy's survival, but the relative inactivity of his campaign since January, especially recently, could haunt him as the general heats up.
There was less of a need to make appearances after had sewn up the nomination, but that argument makes sense for every month up until June. Both candidates total appearances came down in June but, while for Obama that makes sense, he finally could take a break from the trail after securing the nomination, McCain needed no such break. He had been relaxing and stretching his legs since January. Why didn't his campaign hit its stride in June and taken advantage of the Dems drawn-out fight?
Well, considering that McCain's campaign has undergone another July shake-up (in what is becoming an annual rite of passage), we now know that incompetence is partly to blame. Months that could've been used to define their candidate while the two Dems bloodied each other late into the spring were squandered. I'll be interested to see the trend of those campaign appearance totals as the general heats up in the fall. Will McCain start campaigning on weekends? Is his lower number of appearances somehow related to his age? The high total in January seems to indicate otherwise but perhaps he reacted poorly to those 60+ appearances? He certainly looked terrible on the trail in January, but a lot of that was his poor public speaking skills, which I've read have been coached out of him. While these questions about his age are speculative, McCain can put to bed some of these whispers with a robust slate of appearances in September.
That type of schedule would lend more credence to the argument that his absence on the trail in the spring was a strategic error, and not one of necessity given the Senator's age. Either way, with the depressed value of the Republican brand the McCain campaign has less margin for error than the typical Republican Presidential candidate. With his slow start on the trail in June, that margin may have already been breached.
The Protocol has evidence that Sen. McCain was replaced by a robot on the campaign trail in January.
Obama v. McCain: Top 10 Campaign Stops
The NYT has a great interactive graphic that shows where the candidates have made appearances since April 2007. The Times defines appearances as speeches, fundraisers, meet and greets, debates, press avails, private events, and assorted other events. The two charts below show the ten cities each candidate has visited most frequently since they started campaigning last spring.
(The Protocol will be delivering more analysis of this data in the coming days...stay tuned.)
| OBAMA's TOP 10 | ||
| Rank | City | No. of Events |
| 1 | Des Moines, IA | 33 |
| 2 | Washington, DC | 31 |
| 3 | Chicago, IL | 27 |
| 4 | Las Vegas, NV | 17 |
| 5 | Los Angeles, CA | 13 |
| 6 | Manchester, NH | 12 |
| t7 | Colombia, SC | 10 |
| t7 | New York City, NY | 10 |
| 9 | Philadelphia, PA | 9 |
| 10 | Portland, OR | 7 |
| McCAIN's TOP 10 | ||
| Rank | City | No. of Events |
| 1 | Washington, DC | 19 |
| t2 | Manchester, NH | 12 |
| t2 | New York City, NY | 12 |
| t4 | Columbia, SC | 11 |
| t4 | Miami, FL | 11 |
| 6 | Phoenix, AZ | 10 |
| t7 | Concord, NH | 9 |
| t7 | Des Moines, IA | 9 |
| 9 | Charleston, SC | 8 |
| t10 | Chicago, IL | 7 |
| t10 | Nashua, NH | 7 |
| t10 | Orlando, FL | 7 |
Swingtown, USA: Standish, MI
Welcome:
Standish is the county seat of Arenac County, and is located six miles from Saginaw Bay in Northeast Michigan. The town is named after founding father John D. Standish, who, in the latter half of the 19th century, owned the land that became the town. Arenac means "of or pertaining to a sandy place." (The suffix "-ac" is derived from Ancient Greek and means "pertaining to" and "arena" is Latin for "place strewn with sand.") 
By the Numbers:
The town's population in 2000 was 1,581; the county's population was 17,269. Standish is 97% white, less than 1% African-American, and 2% Hispanic or Latino. Arenac County is 95% white, 2% African-American, and 1% Hispanic or Latino. In 2000, the per capita income for the town was $13,608.
Kerry won Arenac County by five votes in 2004: 4,076 to Bush's 4,071. Kerry did well in Deep River Twp. and Omer (the smallest "city" in the state with a pop. of 337), while Bush won Standish, Au Gres, and Sims Township. In Arenac County's Republican Primary, Romney, buoyed by the home state bump, won 35% of the vote, McCain won 34%, Huckabee won 16%, and Paul won 5%. In the disputed Democratic Primary Clinton won 69% to Uncommitted's 28%.
Fun Facts!
Evidence from artifacts found in the area indicate that Arenac County has been inhabited for over 5000 years.
The area was settled by Europeans when two settlers started a sawmill in 1856. The county was founded in 1883 during the lumber boom when it was separated from Bay and Saginaw Counties.
Standish is considered a sportsmen's supply headquarters for those provisioning themselves before going hunting further north, but you don't need to leave Arenac to find outdoor fun. There's plenty of good canoeing on the Rifle and Au Gres Rivers, or you can take aim at small game in the Tittabawassee River State Forest.
Did somebody say "Slots!"? The Saganing Eagles Landing Casino, operated by the Saganing Chippewa tribe, opened in Standish in January of 2008.
The Arenac County fair, in Standish, runs from July 15-19th.
Check out the city's myspace page.
Your local news source: The Bay City Times
The following chart shows the five smallest vote margins among Arenac County precincts in the 2004 General Election.
Precincts
Vote Margin (in # of votes)
Standish City Ward 3-1
Tie
Mason Township
Bush +1
Moffatt Township
Kerry +4
Standish City Ward 1-1
Kerry +12
Au Gres Township
Bush +19
Swingtown, USA is a regular feature on the Protocol where we introduce readers to a city or town from a swing county in a swing state.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
No FARCing Shit
So, to nobody's real surprise, the U.S. military was apparently involved in last week's rescue of American hostages from everybody's favorite group of Colombian narco-terrorists. The story first broke courtesy of Al Giordano's The Field, a source I immediately distrusted because it egged on my natural inclination to find American military skullduggery everywhere without providing a shred of hard evidence. (Note to Al: a link to another blogger on your own semi-paranoid, pro-legalization site--and that to an article quoting a single, anonymous source--does not a convincing argument make.) My latte liberal sensibilities were assuaged, though, once the news of U.S. involvement made it to NPR. Whew! Now I can believe it!
Howver, Giordano's assertion that the raid was staged to help the political fortunes of John McCain struck me as too much of a stretch. Of course it makes perfect sense that the U.S. was involved in the operation, and I could even believe that Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe wants John McCain to win enough to lend a hand, even possibly inventing a FARC laptop clumsily connecting Obama to Hugo Chavez. Why, though, this little bit of stagecraft would help McCain is beyond me--it's not like what's being sold as a Colombian army operation has registered in any meaningful way with the great middle swath of the electorate he needs. Not to mention the fact that calling attention to his positions on trade probably won't help him with the blue-collar quasi-Clintonites he'll need in November.
Tinfoil hats cannot stop the rays of The October Protocol.
The Douchebag likes Pizza
Dimitri the Douchebag strikes again and this time he's hungry.
| Where is my pizza? by Dimitri the Douchebag |
| Fandalism Free MP3 Hosting |
If you missed his first two calls you should listen to them first.
There is no place for rich douchebags within the Protocol
Monday, July 7, 2008
Swingtown, USA: Stroudsburg, PA
Welcome:
Stroudsburg is the county seat of Monroe County, located in the heart of the Poconos near the New Jersey border. The borough (as they are called in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania) is five miles from the Delaware Water Gap. 
By the Numbers:
The borough's population in 2005 was estimated at 6,264, up about 500 people from the 2000 total. Stroudsburg is 87% white, 6% African-American, and 8% of the white population is of Hispanic or Latino descent. In 2000, the per capita income for the borough was $18,965.
Bush won Monroe County by four votes in 2004: 27,971 votes to Kerry's 27,967 votes. While Kerry won Stroudsburg and East Stroudsburg that margin was surpassed by Bush votes in the surrounding townships. In the Democratic Primary, Clinton won 58% of the county vote, with Obama winning the remaining 42%. In the Republican Primary, McCain won 73% of the vote to Paul's 16%, with Huckabee winning 11%.
Fun Facts!
There is a wealth of natural beauty in Monroe County. Explore the Delaware Water Gap from the borough of the same name. Or visit the Poconos, Pennsylvania's most popular tourist attraction, and hike waterfalls, raft the Delaware, or visit a Jewish summer camp.
The county boasts The Crossings Factory Stores, named the number one outlet center in North America for 2000-01 by the Outlet Retail Merchants Association (ORMA). The area is also home to East Stroudsburg University (Goooo Warriors!), and the Pocono Raceway, which hosts two NASCAR events annually.
Your local news source: The Pocono Record
The following chart shows the six smallest vote margins among Monroe County precincts in the 2004 General Election.
Precincts
Vote Margin (in # of votes)
Stroud 7
Kerry +3
Stroud 5
Kerry +14
Middle Smithfield Eastern
Kerry +14
Paradise
Bush +17
Chestnuthill 1
Kerry +22
Pocono 4
Bush +22
Swingtown, USA is a regular feature on the Protocol where we introduce readers to a city or town from a swing county in a swing state.
Swingtown, USA: Springfield, OH
Welcome:
Springfield, a.k.a. "The Rose City," is the county seat of Clark County in Southwestern Ohio. The city is located on the Mad River and Buck Creek and is named after the spring water that empties into Buck Creek. 
By the Numbers:
The city's population in 2006 was estimated at 62,844, down almost 4% from the 2000 total. Springfield is 78% white, and 18% African-American, while Clark County in total is 88% white, and 9% African-American. One percent of the county is of Hispanic or Latino descent.
Clark County broke narrowly for Bush in 2004 with the President winning 51% of the vote. While Kerry won Springfield City, that margin was surpassed by Bush votes in the surrounding townships. In the Democratic Primary, Clinton won 59% of the county vote, with Obama winning 39%, and Edwards winning 2%. In the Republican Primary, McCain won 57% of the vote to Huckabee's 36%, with Paul winning 3%.
Fun Facts!
Springfield is home to Wittenburg University (Goooo Tigers!), and in 2004 was named an "All-American City". In 1902 the first 4-H Club was founded in Springfield Township, and Clark County still hosts the largest county fair in Ohio.
If you're looking to do more than swing some voters when you are in the Springfield area, the Springfield Convention and Visitors Bureau wants you to discover life's simple pleasures, and perhaps have a championship moment.
Your local news source: Springfield News-Sun
The following chart shows the five smallest vote margins among Clark County precincts in the 2004 General Election.
Precincts
Vote Margin (in # of votes)
Moorefield Township Precinct 7
Bush +1
Springfield Township Precinct 10
Bush +2
Moorefield Township Precinct 11
Bush +3
Springfield Township Precinct 3
Bush +11
Springfield City Precinct 27
Bush +12
Swingtown, USA is a regular feature on the Protocol where we introduce readers to a city or town from a swing county in a swing state.
Saturday, July 5, 2008
Pay them and they will come
There's a fairly interesting article in today's NYTimes about employers' reactions to the recent spate of immigration raids.
The article, written by the Times' immigration beat reporter, Julia Preston, dances around an issue that I think has garnered much too little attention: that employers, not workers, bear most of the responsibility for the "problem" of illegal immigration, as they're the ones driving the market forces that make it happen.
One of the most revealing passages appears early in the article:
Though the pushback is coming from both Democrats and Republicans, in many places it is reopening the rift over immigration that troubled the Republican Party last year. Businesses, generally Republican stalwarts, are standing up to others within the party who accuse them of undercutting border enforcement and jeopardizing American jobs by hiring illegal immigrants as cheap labor.
What is strangest about this is that it is the Nativist wing- in standard, MSM terms, the wingnuts- that, ostensibly carry the flag of anger over wage suppression, a legitimate, and, in some ways, liberal position.
I think this issue basically reveals the cynicism and selfishness of the major forces at work in the immigration debate. Employers, terrified of a cost to their bottom line, or even worse, being accused of actively soliciting undocumented employees, want either no enforcement of current laws or some sort of guest-worker program, a solution that would deliver a steady population of docile workers whose very right to stay in the country would depend on their bosses' say-so.
Employers could do the right thing-- campaign for amnesty and drastically increased legal immigration quotas-- but their standard-bearer Chamber of Commerce party, the GOP, just isn't willing to spend that kind of political capital.
As a side note, look how the employers, according to Preston, use the "market" to defend their position:
Mike Gilsdorf, the owner of a 37-year-old landscaping nursery in Littleton, Colo., saw the need for action by businesses last winter when he advertised with the Labor Department, as he does every year, for 40 seasonal workers at market-rate wages to plant, prune and carry his shrubs in the summer heat. Only one local worker responded to the notice, he said, and then did not show up for the job.
“I can’t replace those people,” the executive said. She said that despite offering competitive wages from $9 to $17 an hour, the company had failed over the years in repeated efforts to attract non-immigrant workers because of the state’s tight technology labor market and because of the nature of the work, exacting and tedious. If the workers were fired or arrested, she said, she could fail to meet her contracts.
What do terms like "market rate" and "competitive wages" mean in this context? Shouldn't "market rate" or "competitive" refer to the price you'd actually have to pay a legally protected employee to do a job? Why do we accept the employers' definition, which seems to be a Platonic notion of what they feel they ought to pay?
More later...
Ain't no one gonna change my Jersey mind
Wednesday, July 2, 2008
A scandal to run with
You can be a peace-loving freedom warrior, and, because you're a little bit of a lefty, you get thrown on the terror watch list. But support batshit crazy right-wing terrorist death squads and no one really cares. This shit is mind-boggling.
The October Protocol does not fund international terrorist organizations or support the purchase and consumption of conflict bananas.
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
A fun fact I learned today...
Over the past couple days, I've been doing preliminary reporting on a couple stories relating to immigration that I'm hoping to write this summer, and I've already stumbled across some harrowing facts about our jalopy of a national immigration system.
Did you know, for instance, that citizens from any country that has seen over 50,000 people immigrate to the U.S. in the last 5 years are forbidden from taking part in our visa lottery? (There are other ways to get in, but the lottery is the only one available to people without family connections, a highly marketable skill, or a documented case for asylum).
Excluded countries include Mexico, Canada, India, China, the Philippines, Korea, Vietnam, Pakistan, Colombia, El Salvador, Jamaica, Haiti, Russia, the UK and Poland, i.e. the world's two largest countries, the entire northern hemisphere, and most of our closest allies.
WTF?
This also means that when people say Mexican construction and agricultural workers should "just get in line," they are asking them to do something that is, in many cases...impossible.