Karl Rove: Electoral Genius?

Karl Rove's latest strategy memo has been posted on the WSJ Opinion page. Rove highlights Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan as the four key battleground states. I don't take issue with this thesis, but the rest of his map is laughably optimistic.

Let's take a look at the article.

If Mr. McCain lost Colorado and Virginia, he would likely have 264 electoral votes (assuming he carried the other states President Bush won in 2004). To win, he would have to pick up a state Democrats are counting on winning, such as Michigan.

Ummm...just because you put it in parentheses Karl, doesn't make the statement disappear. Assuming he wins the Bush states! Really, you're going to slide that in as a given in your analysis. Last time I checked Obama has had significant and consistent polling leads throughout 2008 in both Iowa and New Mexico, two "Bush states." But you'll account for those two states later in the opinion when you run-down the list of competitive states, right?

Other states will see serious competition, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Missouri and Wisconsin.

Oh, okay, you've conceded IA and NM to Obama. Great. So now lets check your addition. Bush won 286 EVs in 2004. Subtract from that Iowa's 7 EVs and New Mexico's 5 EVs and McCain is down to 274 EVs. Now, if we continue with Rove's scenario of Obama winning CO and VA, we need to subtract 9 EVs for CO and 13 EVs for VA. McCain is now at 252 EVs, NOT 264. Even if McCain flipped Michigan the two candidates would be tied at 269 and the tie goes to Obama.

Of course that line of analysis assumes McCain runs the table in MI (Obama +3), OH (Obama +1.1), MT (McCain +1.7), FL (McCain +2), NV (McCain +2), MO (McCain +4.1), and IN (McCain +4.7). (538 numbers in parentheses).

If he does that, wait, he STILL loses.

Rove's analysis here is a joke. He is obviously trading on his reputation as an electoral "genius" to disguise preposterous scenarios as realistic possibilities. The irony is, based on memos like this, this type of unfounded, optimistic report wouldn't cross McCain's desk if Rove were running his campaign.

Can we all stop pretending that Karl Rove, "journalist" will provide the same type of analysis as Karl Rove, campaign manager.

The Protocol would never overlook Iowa. New Mexico? Maybe.

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Rasmussen in MI

An encouraging trend for Obama.

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Swingtown, USA: Standish, MI

Welcome:

Standish is the county seat of Arenac County, and is located six miles from Saginaw Bay in Northeast Michigan. The town is named after founding father John D. Standish, who, in the latter half of the 19th century, owned the land that became the town. Arenac means "of or pertaining to a sandy place." (The suffix "-ac" is derived from Ancient Greek and means "pertaining to" and "arena" is Latin for "place strewn with sand.")












By the Numbers:

The town's population in 2000 was 1,581; the county's population was 17,269. Standish is 97% white, less than 1% African-American, and 2% Hispanic or Latino. Arenac County is 95% white, 2% African-American, and 1% Hispanic or Latino. In 2000, the per capita income for the town was $13,608.

Kerry won Arenac County by five votes in 2004: 4,076 to Bush's 4,071. Kerry did well in Deep River Twp. and Omer (the smallest "city" in the state with a pop. of 337), while Bush won Standish, Au Gres, and Sims Township. In Arenac County's Republican Primary, Romney, buoyed by the home state bump, won 35% of the vote, McCain won 34%, Huckabee won 16%, and Paul won 5%. In the disputed Democratic Primary Clinton won 69% to Uncommitted's 28%.

Fun Facts!

Evidence from artifacts found in the area indicate that Arenac County has been inhabited for over 5000 years.

The area was settled by Europeans when two settlers started a sawmill in 1856. The county was founded in 1883 during the lumber boom when it was separated from Bay and Saginaw Counties.

Standish is considered a sportsmen's supply headquarters for those provisioning themselves before going hunting further north, but you don't need to leave Arenac to find outdoor fun. There's plenty of good canoeing on the Rifle and Au Gres Rivers, or you can take aim at small game in the Tittabawassee River State Forest.

Did somebody say "Slots!"? The Saganing Eagles Landing Casino, operated by the Saganing Chippewa tribe, opened in Standish in January of 2008.

The Arenac County fair, in Standish, runs from July 15-19th.

Check out the city's myspace page.

Your local news source: The Bay City Times


The following chart shows the five smallest vote margins among Arenac County precincts in the 2004 General Election.

Precincts	Vote Margin (in # of votes)
Standish City Ward 3-1	Tie
Mason Township	Bush +1
Moffatt Township	Kerry +4
Standish City Ward 1-1	Kerry +12
Au Gres Township	Bush +19

Swingtown, USA is a regular feature on the Protocol where we introduce readers to a city or town from a swing county in a swing state.

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