Updated to include July numbers.
This line chart reflects the Obama campaign's chances of closing the gap in Georgia based solely on registering and motivating AA voters to turnout in November. The solid orange line indicates the growing number of active registered AA voters in Georgia. The dashed orange line is the projected total of active registered AA voters for each month if 20,000 new AA voters are registered each month until the election (an exceedingly optimistic figure given the trend of the last three months). The red, green, and blue lines indicate the active registered voter thresholds the Obama campaign would have to reach given each of the three turnout scenarios described to the right of the chart. As you can see the dashed orange line falls short of the 90% turnout threshold-the wildly optimistic threshold for Obama.
Roughly 2000 new AA voters were registered in Georgia in the last month, a number far below the previous months' totals and further below what the campaign was targeting. What is becoming increasingly clear in Georgia is that Obama will need a lot more than registering and motivating the AA vote to close the Bush-Kerry '04 gap. Paging Bob Barr...
Further explanation of the numbers provided in the chart is here.
Spending a day learning html in order to produce charts that are web-compatible is encouraged under the Protocol.
Sunday, August 3, 2008
Obama and the African-American vote in GA
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2 comments:
I like the way you guys push the numbers to show what kind of concrete effort Obama needs to put out to win. My Brother has a standing argument that O needs to start campaigning like a BLACK man: Stop acting like he's GOING to win and start campaigning like he WANTS to win. As he puts it, he hasn't seen O go into 5th gear yet. O needs to come down off the aloofness thing, roll his sleeves up and get out there on the streets to turn these numbers around. I'd like to see updqtes to the campaign appearances graph to gauge whether or not he amps it up after the convention.
thanks for the comment Eddy. As you can see we've gone into hibernation on this site. We are still following the election closely but havent found time to post.
From what I can tell, Obama still seems to be outcampaigning McCain on the weekends. Every weekend McCain takes one day off while Obama is on the trail every day.
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