Karl Rove's latest strategy memo has been posted on the WSJ Opinion page. Rove highlights Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Michigan as the four key battleground states. I don't take issue with this thesis, but the rest of his map is laughably optimistic.
Let's take a look at the article.
If Mr. McCain lost Colorado and Virginia, he would likely have 264 electoral votes (assuming he carried the other states President Bush won in 2004). To win, he would have to pick up a state Democrats are counting on winning, such as Michigan.
Ummm...just because you put it in parentheses Karl, doesn't make the statement disappear. Assuming he wins the Bush states! Really, you're going to slide that in as a given in your analysis. Last time I checked Obama has had significant and consistent polling leads throughout 2008 in both Iowa and New Mexico, two "Bush states." But you'll account for those two states later in the opinion when you run-down the list of competitive states, right?
Other states will see serious competition, including Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, Missouri and Wisconsin.
Oh, okay, you've conceded IA and NM to Obama. Great. So now lets check your addition. Bush won 286 EVs in 2004. Subtract from that Iowa's 7 EVs and New Mexico's 5 EVs and McCain is down to 274 EVs. Now, if we continue with Rove's scenario of Obama winning CO and VA, we need to subtract 9 EVs for CO and 13 EVs for VA. McCain is now at 252 EVs, NOT 264. Even if McCain flipped Michigan the two candidates would be tied at 269 and the tie goes to Obama.
Of course that line of analysis assumes McCain runs the table in MI (Obama +3), OH (Obama +1.1), MT (McCain +1.7), FL (McCain +2), NV (McCain +2), MO (McCain +4.1), and IN (McCain +4.7). (538 numbers in parentheses).
If he does that, wait, he STILL loses.
Rove's analysis here is a joke. He is obviously trading on his reputation as an electoral "genius" to disguise preposterous scenarios as realistic possibilities. The irony is, based on memos like this, this type of unfounded, optimistic report wouldn't cross McCain's desk if Rove were running his campaign.
Can we all stop pretending that Karl Rove, "journalist" will provide the same type of analysis as Karl Rove, campaign manager.
The Protocol would never overlook Iowa. New Mexico? Maybe.
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