Can the AA vote turn Georgia for Obama?

Updated to include June numbers.



This line chart reflects the Obama campaign's chances of closing the gap in Georgia based solely on registering and motivating AA voters to turnout in November. The solid orange line indicates the growing number of active registered AA voters in Georgia. The dashed orange line is the projected total of active registered AA voters for each month if 20,000 new AA voters are registered each month until the election (an exceedingly optimistic figure given the trend of the last three months). The red, green, and blue lines indicate the active registered voter thresholds the Obama campaign would have to reach given each of the three turnout scenarios described to the right of the chart. As you can see the dashed orange line falls short of the 90% turnout threshold-the wildly optimistic threshold for Obama.

Roughly 2000 new AA voters were registered in Georgia in the last month, a number far below the previous months' totals and further below what the campaign was targeting. What is becoming increasingly clear in Georgia is that Obama will need a lot more than registering and motivating the AA vote to close the Bush-Kerry '04 gap. Paging Bob Barr . . .

Further explanation of the numbers provided in the chart is here.

Spending a day learning html in order to produce charts that are web-compatible is encouraged under the Protocol.