McCain is averaging 34.2 campaign appearances per month since April 2007, while Obama is averaging 45.7 over that same time frame. This difference isn't THAT surprising considering Obama's extended primary vs. Sen. Clinton. Sen. Obama's primary season was four months longer than Sen. McCain's (Feb.-May), and Obama significantly outpaced McCain in appearances during those four months.
McCain's three lowest totals came in July and August of 2007, and March of 2008. The latter month was when he took his trip to Iraq so that can partially explain the lower number. In July of 07 the McCain campaign underwent its first major reshuffling, so those months could've been spent restrategizing. That and it was widely known that his campaign was low on funds, so he could've been husbanding resources during the August vacation period.
Obama's lowest months were April and May 2007, and, interestingly, March 2008. Two of these "low" months included more appearances than McCain's average month, so keep that in perspective. The early slower pace to his campaign schedule could have been attributed to a new campaign finding its bearings (and working with a smaller war chest). The March 08 number is notable since it came during the heart of his intense primary campaign. Perhaps he was taking a break, relatively speaking, after the 30 contests in February, or that less frequent primaries and caucuses meant fewer requirements for appearances.
McCain has the highest single month total, with 63 appearances in January 08, a statistic that supports the "John McCain: 71 years YOUNG" argument. This was the month he essentially clinched the nomination, so his 24 appearances in Florida and 16 each in Michigan and South Carolina make sense. He hasn't made half as many appearances in any month since this high month. He was campaigning much harder in May and June of '07 than he did in those same months in '08. A lot of that '07 work was probably fundraisers and other events to guarantee his fledgling candidacy's survival, but the relative inactivity of his campaign since January, especially recently, could haunt him as the general heats up.
There was less of a need to make appearances after had sewn up the nomination, but that argument makes sense for every month up until June. Both candidates total appearances came down in June but, while for Obama that makes sense, he finally could take a break from the trail after securing the nomination, McCain needed no such break. He had been relaxing and stretching his legs since January. Why didn't his campaign hit its stride in June and taken advantage of the Dems drawn-out fight?
Well, considering that McCain's campaign has undergone another July shake-up (in what is becoming an annual rite of passage), we now know that incompetence is partly to blame. Months that could've been used to define their candidate while the two Dems bloodied each other late into the spring were squandered. I'll be interested to see the trend of those campaign appearance totals as the general heats up in the fall. Will McCain start campaigning on weekends? Is his lower number of appearances somehow related to his age? The high total in January seems to indicate otherwise but perhaps he reacted poorly to those 60+ appearances? He certainly looked terrible on the trail in January, but a lot of that was his poor public speaking skills, which I've read have been coached out of him. While these questions about his age are speculative, McCain can put to bed some of these whispers with a robust slate of appearances in September.
That type of schedule would lend more credence to the argument that his absence on the trail in the spring was a strategic error, and not one of necessity given the Senator's age. Either way, with the depressed value of the Republican brand the McCain campaign has less margin for error than the typical Republican Presidential candidate. With his slow start on the trail in June, that margin may have already been breached.
The Protocol has evidence that Sen. McCain was replaced by a robot on the campaign trail in January.
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Obama v. McCain: Campaign Appearances by Month
Obama v. McCain: Top 10 Campaign Stops
The NYT has a great interactive graphic that shows where the candidates have made appearances since April 2007. The Times defines appearances as speeches, fundraisers, meet and greets, debates, press avails, private events, and assorted other events. The two charts below show the ten cities each candidate has visited most frequently since they started campaigning last spring.
(The Protocol will be delivering more analysis of this data in the coming days...stay tuned.)
| OBAMA's TOP 10 | ||
| Rank | City | No. of Events |
| 1 | Des Moines, IA | 33 |
| 2 | Washington, DC | 31 |
| 3 | Chicago, IL | 27 |
| 4 | Las Vegas, NV | 17 |
| 5 | Los Angeles, CA | 13 |
| 6 | Manchester, NH | 12 |
| t7 | Colombia, SC | 10 |
| t7 | New York City, NY | 10 |
| 9 | Philadelphia, PA | 9 |
| 10 | Portland, OR | 7 |
| McCAIN's TOP 10 | ||
| Rank | City | No. of Events |
| 1 | Washington, DC | 19 |
| t2 | Manchester, NH | 12 |
| t2 | New York City, NY | 12 |
| t4 | Columbia, SC | 11 |
| t4 | Miami, FL | 11 |
| 6 | Phoenix, AZ | 10 |
| t7 | Concord, NH | 9 |
| t7 | Des Moines, IA | 9 |
| 9 | Charleston, SC | 8 |
| t10 | Chicago, IL | 7 |
| t10 | Nashua, NH | 7 |
| t10 | Orlando, FL | 7 |
Swingtown, USA: Standish, MI
Welcome:
Standish is the county seat of Arenac County, and is located six miles from Saginaw Bay in Northeast Michigan. The town is named after founding father John D. Standish, who, in the latter half of the 19th century, owned the land that became the town. Arenac means "of or pertaining to a sandy place." (The suffix "-ac" is derived from Ancient Greek and means "pertaining to" and "arena" is Latin for "place strewn with sand.") 
By the Numbers:
The town's population in 2000 was 1,581; the county's population was 17,269. Standish is 97% white, less than 1% African-American, and 2% Hispanic or Latino. Arenac County is 95% white, 2% African-American, and 1% Hispanic or Latino. In 2000, the per capita income for the town was $13,608.
Kerry won Arenac County by five votes in 2004: 4,076 to Bush's 4,071. Kerry did well in Deep River Twp. and Omer (the smallest "city" in the state with a pop. of 337), while Bush won Standish, Au Gres, and Sims Township. In Arenac County's Republican Primary, Romney, buoyed by the home state bump, won 35% of the vote, McCain won 34%, Huckabee won 16%, and Paul won 5%. In the disputed Democratic Primary Clinton won 69% to Uncommitted's 28%.
Fun Facts!
Evidence from artifacts found in the area indicate that Arenac County has been inhabited for over 5000 years.
The area was settled by Europeans when two settlers started a sawmill in 1856. The county was founded in 1883 during the lumber boom when it was separated from Bay and Saginaw Counties.
Standish is considered a sportsmen's supply headquarters for those provisioning themselves before going hunting further north, but you don't need to leave Arenac to find outdoor fun. There's plenty of good canoeing on the Rifle and Au Gres Rivers, or you can take aim at small game in the Tittabawassee River State Forest.
Did somebody say "Slots!"? The Saganing Eagles Landing Casino, operated by the Saganing Chippewa tribe, opened in Standish in January of 2008.
The Arenac County fair, in Standish, runs from July 15-19th.
Check out the city's myspace page.
Your local news source: The Bay City Times
The following chart shows the five smallest vote margins among Arenac County precincts in the 2004 General Election.
Precincts
Vote Margin (in # of votes)
Standish City Ward 3-1
Tie
Mason Township
Bush +1
Moffatt Township
Kerry +4
Standish City Ward 1-1
Kerry +12
Au Gres Township
Bush +19
Swingtown, USA is a regular feature on the Protocol where we introduce readers to a city or town from a swing county in a swing state.
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
No FARCing Shit
So, to nobody's real surprise, the U.S. military was apparently involved in last week's rescue of American hostages from everybody's favorite group of Colombian narco-terrorists. The story first broke courtesy of Al Giordano's The Field, a source I immediately distrusted because it egged on my natural inclination to find American military skullduggery everywhere without providing a shred of hard evidence. (Note to Al: a link to another blogger on your own semi-paranoid, pro-legalization site--and that to an article quoting a single, anonymous source--does not a convincing argument make.) My latte liberal sensibilities were assuaged, though, once the news of U.S. involvement made it to NPR. Whew! Now I can believe it!
Howver, Giordano's assertion that the raid was staged to help the political fortunes of John McCain struck me as too much of a stretch. Of course it makes perfect sense that the U.S. was involved in the operation, and I could even believe that Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe wants John McCain to win enough to lend a hand, even possibly inventing a FARC laptop clumsily connecting Obama to Hugo Chavez. Why, though, this little bit of stagecraft would help McCain is beyond me--it's not like what's being sold as a Colombian army operation has registered in any meaningful way with the great middle swath of the electorate he needs. Not to mention the fact that calling attention to his positions on trade probably won't help him with the blue-collar quasi-Clintonites he'll need in November.
Tinfoil hats cannot stop the rays of The October Protocol.
The Douchebag likes Pizza
Dimitri the Douchebag strikes again and this time he's hungry.
| Where is my pizza? by Dimitri the Douchebag |
| Fandalism Free MP3 Hosting |
If you missed his first two calls you should listen to them first.
There is no place for rich douchebags within the Protocol
Monday, July 7, 2008
Swingtown, USA: Stroudsburg, PA
Welcome:
Stroudsburg is the county seat of Monroe County, located in the heart of the Poconos near the New Jersey border. The borough (as they are called in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania) is five miles from the Delaware Water Gap.
By the Numbers:
The borough's population in 2005 was estimated at 6,264, up about 500 people from the 2000 total. Stroudsburg is 87% white, 6% African-American, and 8% of the white population is of Hispanic or Latino descent. In 2000, the per capita income for the borough was $18,965.
Bush won Monroe County by four votes in 2004: 27,971 votes to Kerry's 27,967 votes. While Kerry won Stroudsburg and East Stroudsburg that margin was surpassed by Bush votes in the surrounding townships. In the Democratic Primary, Clinton won 58% of the county vote, with Obama winning the remaining 42%. In the Republican Primary, McCain won 73% of the vote to Paul's 16%, with Huckabee winning 11%.
Fun Facts!
There is a wealth of natural beauty in Monroe County. Explore the Delaware Water Gap from the borough of the same name. Or visit the Poconos, Pennsylvania's most popular tourist attraction, and hike waterfalls, raft the Delaware, or visit a Jewish summer camp.
The county boasts The Crossings Factory Stores, named the number one outlet center in North America for 2000-01 by the Outlet Retail Merchants Association (ORMA). The area is also home to East Stroudsburg University (Goooo Warriors!), and the Pocono Raceway, which hosts two NASCAR events annually.
Your local news source: The Pocono Record
The following chart shows the six smallest vote margins among Monroe County precincts in the 2004 General Election.
Precincts
Vote Margin (in # of votes)
Stroud 7
Kerry +3
Stroud 5
Kerry +14
Middle Smithfield Eastern
Kerry +14
Paradise
Bush +17
Chestnuthill 1
Kerry +22
Pocono 4
Bush +22
Swingtown, USA is a regular feature on the Protocol where we introduce readers to a city or town from a swing county in a swing state.
Swingtown, USA: Springfield, OH
Welcome:
Springfield, a.k.a. "The Rose City," is the county seat of Clark County in Southwestern Ohio. The city is located on the Mad River and Buck Creek and is named after the spring water that empties into Buck Creek. 
By the Numbers:
The city's population in 2006 was estimated at 62,844, down almost 4% from the 2000 total. Springfield is 78% white, and 18% African-American, while Clark County in total is 88% white, and 9% African-American. One percent of the county is of Hispanic or Latino descent.
Clark County broke narrowly for Bush in 2004 with the President winning 51% of the vote. While Kerry won Springfield City, that margin was surpassed by Bush votes in the surrounding townships. In the Democratic Primary, Clinton won 59% of the county vote, with Obama winning 39%, and Edwards winning 2%. In the Republican Primary, McCain won 57% of the vote to Huckabee's 36%, with Paul winning 3%.
Fun Facts!
Springfield is home to Wittenburg University (Goooo Tigers!), and in 2004 was named an "All-American City". In 1902 the first 4-H Club was founded in Springfield Township, and Clark County still hosts the largest county fair in Ohio.
If you're looking to do more than swing some voters when you are in the Springfield area, the Springfield Convention and Visitors Bureau wants you to discover life's simple pleasures, and perhaps have a championship moment.
Your local news source: Springfield News-Sun
The following chart shows the five smallest vote margins among Clark County precincts in the 2004 General Election.
Precincts
Vote Margin (in # of votes)
Moorefield Township Precinct 7
Bush +1
Springfield Township Precinct 10
Bush +2
Moorefield Township Precinct 11
Bush +3
Springfield Township Precinct 3
Bush +11
Springfield City Precinct 27
Bush +12
Swingtown, USA is a regular feature on the Protocol where we introduce readers to a city or town from a swing county in a swing state.
